Debate one was not Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, or red versus blue. At the Canada-U.S. border, I encountered a study in contrasts. His tax returns dispel all his pretensions to wealth and sacrifice, and his reelection campaign is running out of time. A new package of reforms aims to patch a gaping hole in the guardrails of American government. A president who does not respect tax laws, does not respect the FBI, is surely not going to be constrained by a debate moderator. He urged the Proud Boys to “stand by” because “somebody’s got to do something” about “antifa and the left.” He refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power in the (likely) event that he loses. On the preexisting trajectory of the 2020 campaign, Trump was going to lose—and probably lose big. But it was revealing pandemonium.
It was pandemonium. He threatened months and months of chaos if the election does not go his way. Trump yelled, threatened, interrupted—and changed nothing.
In 2001 and 2002, he was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush. Trump repeatedly insisted that the presidency had “cost me billions.” In an October 2018 call to Fox & Friends, he estimated the loss at $2 billion to $3 billion.
Now the banana peels have been dumped beneath his own feet. Second, and perhaps more important, the ink-on-paper confirmation of Trump’s indebtedness, tax dodging, and all-around crookedness will get into Trump’s head. A conversation with David Carballo about the fall of the Aztec empire. On the Cleveland stage, Trump communicated that he will seize any opportunity to disrupt the vote and resist the outcome. David Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy . Trump spoke only about his wounded ego. The president may eventually face legal liability, but he will not face a public reckoning for his actions before November. In July 2015, he boasted, “As a businessman and a very substantial donor to very important people, when you give, they do whatever the hell you want them to do.” Now Trump was offering to put his hard-won knowledge to work for put-upon voters. Gravity is now pulling harder against him. The president imagined that he could do unto Woodward as Woodward was doing unto him. In 2001 and 2002, he was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush. On the present trajectory, nearly 150 million votes are likely to be cast in 2020. David Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy . They were more racially aggrieved. He needed something to happen either to help him or, more plausibly, to push the Biden camp into some mistake or misstep. Peter Wehner: Why Trump supporters can’t admit who he really is, Trump spoke powerfully to those voters. His political project through the pandemic has been to mess with his opponents by hurling one crazy distraction after another. All Rights Reserved. We want to hear what you think about this article. Those class-aggrieved Republicans believed that high earners paid too little in tax and wanted taxes on corporations and rich people raised, not cut. Instead, he talked to Facebook conspiracists, to the angriest of ultra-Republican partisans, and to violent white supremacists. On Fox & Friends that August, he complained about financiers avoiding taxes: “They should be taxed a fair amount of money,” he said. David Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy . Trump’s hopes for 2020 depended on fantastic overperformance with white voters without college degrees. They are not doing a very good job, in part because they must worry about the line that Trump will eventually want them to take, when he finally announces a line. Remember: Back in 2015, when Donald Trump announced his campaign for president, about one-third of Republicans and Republican-leaners condemned the distribution of wealth in the United States as unjust. As Trump vehemently disputes reports that he has disparaged veterans, some silences speak loudly. Now, suddenly, it’s his own decision loop that has been disrupted. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.
Trump voters were more economically pessimistic than other Republicans. When he at last delivered a tax plan in 2017, he insisted, “This is going to cost me a fortune, this thing, believe me. TheAtlantic.com Copyright (c) 2020 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. Biden may be faded from what he was: perhaps less crisp, less sharp, less fast. He’s lost so much support elsewhere that he must hold every last member of his core group. He communicated more forcefully than ever that the only security the country has for a constitutional future is that Biden wins by the largest possible margin. Trump walked onto that stage in Cleveland seven or eight points behind, because the traditional Republican advantage among upper-income and educated voters has dwindled; because non-college-educated white women have turned against him; because he is losing older voters to his mishandling of COVID-19; because the groups he needs to be demobilized—African Americans, the young—are up-mobilized. The second spike, in June, is his own doing. Biden succeeded in putting his most important messages on record: your health care, your job, your right to equal respect, regardless of race or creed—all against Trump’s disregard and disrespect. All Rights Reserved. He doesn’t need to decline much among these voters to convert any faint hope of success into certainty of disaster. The first coronavirus spike, in late April, can be blamed on the president’s negligence. The theory was that American voters crave dominance, no matter how belligerent or offensive. The first lady lamented the divides that her husband foments and exploits, and that she herself has done little to overcome. If Trump wins 43 percent of them and Joe Biden 50 percent, not even the Electoral College can convert that negative margin into a second Trump term. He’s losing. TheAtlantic.com Copyright (c) 2020 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. The president proved once again that he regards himself as a wartime leader of Red America against Blue America. In 2001 and 2002, he was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush. All Rights Reserved. TheAtlantic.com Copyright (c) 2020 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. David Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy (2020). Instead, he’s trying to climb out of an eight-to-10-point deficit. Trump’s son Don Jr. compared the family’s sacrifices to the heroism honored at Arlington National Cemetery. Trump should never have been allowed anywhere near any public office. The highly politically aware always recognized that these claims of wealth and sacrifice were preposterously false. For once, he may be on the wrong side of a power dynamic. Trump disgraced the presidency on that stage. In Cleveland, the president yelled, threatened, interrupted—and changed nothing. Two North American nations seemed to be on the same path—and then they diverged. He may try to huff and puff—a tactic that might have saved the day if he were sitting on a lead. Who and what Trump is could not have been more vividly displayed in all the psychological reality. In his book Triggered, he described his feelings on a visit to Arlington: “In that moment, I also thought of all the attacks we’d already suffered as a family, and about all the sacrifices we’d have to make to help my father succeed—voluntarily giving up a huge chunk of our business and all international deals to avoid the appearance that we were ‘profiting off the office.’”.
A war-game exercise simulating the 2020 election unmasked some key vulnerabilities.
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